xG stands for Expected Goals, a statistical measure of the quality of a shot, expressed as the probability that it will result in a goal. Each shot is assigned an xG value between 0 and 1 based on factors like distance from goal, angle, assist type, and whether it was a header or with the foot. A shot with an xG of 0.3 has a 30% chance of being scored based on historical data from similar positions. A team's total xG across a match shows how many goals they should have scored based on the chances they created.
Croatia were one of the biggest overperformers of the 2022 World Cup relative to their xG. They reached the semi-finals despite ranking 23rd in xG differential out of 32 teams, meaning they consistently scored more goals than their chances suggested they should. Their quarter-final win over Brazil (xG: Brazil 2.6, Croatia 0.6) was the most extreme example, they scored once from very little and won on penalties. Morocco (ranked 19th in xG differential) also massively outperformed expectations by reaching the semi-finals. Source: ESPN Tactical Trends Analysis, December 2022
Germany were one of the biggest xG underperformers at the 2022 World Cup. According to ESPN's tournament analysis, they recorded the best xG differential per match (+2.2) yet finished third in their group and were eliminated. Germany generated around 3.1 xG against Japan but lost 2–1. Brazil also posted one of the tournament's strongest xG profiles, yet exited in the quarter-finals after drawing 1–1 with Croatia despite creating roughly 2.6 xG to Croatia's 0.6. These matches are widely regarded as two of the clearest examples of underlying performance and results diverging at Qatar 2022.
Yes. While Argentina posted strong underlying numbers throughout the tournament, they also benefited from key moments that went beyond what expected-goals models would predict. Lionel Messi converted chances efficiently, and goalkeeper Emiliano Martínez produced decisive saves, including a dramatic stop from Randal Kolo Muani in the final. Argentina's World Cup-winning campaign combined strong performances with several pivotal moments that helped them outperform the margins suggested by xG alone.
Expected goals (xG) estimates how many goals a team should score based on the quality of its chances, while actual goals are what happened on the pitch. When a team scores more goals than its xG predicts, it is said to have overperformed its xG; when it scores fewer, it has underperformed. At the 2022 World Cup, several teams outperformed expected-goals models through efficient finishing and decisive moments, showing that results do not always match the underlying statistics.
Germany generated 3.1 xG against Japan in their 2022 World Cup group stage match, one of the highest single-match xG totals for a losing team in World Cup history. They lost 2-1 despite this dominance. At the 2022 tournament overall, Brazil created extremely high xG totals in multiple matches, including their 2.6 xG quarter-final against Croatia. Historically, teams producing 3.0+ xG in a World Cup match and losing are extremely rare, which is why Germany's group stage exit was considered such a statistical shock. Source: ESPN Tactical Trends Analysis, December 2022
France won the 2018 World Cup final against Croatia 4-2, but according to xG data, Croatia were the better statistical team, France's xG was 1.18 vs Croatia's 1.70. France's goals included an own goal, a penalty, and a strike from 25 yards, all of which outperformed their expected probability. This makes the 2018 final one of the clearest examples of a World Cup winner benefiting from goals above expected value in the most important match of the tournament. Source: xGscore.io World Cup 2018 analysis